Jacob Williams https://jacobwilliams.com

One of the topics being covered over on that ‘other’ website is the party-political electioneering tactics of the IPG. Old Grumpy’s super-mole has been filling him in on all sorts of things going on behind the scenes of the recent elections that you weren’t supposed to know about.

It would appear that the ‘brains’ behind the IPG are pretty keen on making tactical predictions and forecasting outcomes at the polls, and it just so happens that some fresh evidence of this has come my way. An internal IPG document, no less, which – you’ve guessed it – contains predictions for the 2012 elections, the knowledge of which I suspect was only intended for a select few very high up within the council’s controlling group.

A similar document is referred to on Old Grumpy’s website, though the one he describes seems to have been made post-election, as it sorts candidates into their known or suspected intentions i.e. if those elected as ‘independent’ are likely to join the Independent Political Group or not.

There is none of that included on my document, and neither does it contain the words ‘uglies’ or ‘idiots’ to describe unaffiliated councillors, so I can only assume that our super-mole is a generous sort, and is sharing the hard evidence between the pair of us.

There is, of course, another possibility – that there is more than one super-mole at work.

I suspect that the document in my possession was created by the same person who Cllr. Stoddart subtly refers to on his website. Suffice to say, I think the grammar police would have more than enough evidence to persuade a judge to issue a warrant.

On the whole, the predictions are pretty accurate. Candidates in 13 out of the county’s 60 wards were unopposed, which left 47 wards to hold elections. Predictions within this documentation have been made for 30 of them, 25 of which came to pass. I was initially somewhat surprised to see that a ‘James Williams’ was expected to win ‘East Williams(t)on.’ It hasn’t been uncommon over the years for me to be called ‘Jason,’ ‘Jonathan,’ ‘Joshua,’ and other biblical names beginning with the letter J, so I’ll count it among the correct predictions. It is also the only prediction on the document where a sitting IPG member was expected to lose their seat.

Milford Central

Cabinet member Anne Hughes was predicted to retain Milford Central, a seat she won in 2008 with a comfortable majority. Plaid Cymru candidate Stephen Joseph went on to take the seat with an even bigger margin, and her toppling is widely regarded by the local media as the biggest upset of the 2012 elections.

Neyland West

‘Maureen Molunex’ (cut this person some slack, Molyneux is an awkward name to spell by anybody’s standards) who was the sitting IPG member, was expected to fend off her two challengers including the young Labour aspirant Paul Miller. At the polls, Miller bowled a wicket maiden against the IPG, and since his election victory his upward journey has continued. He soon became the Labour party’s leader on the council, a position which became vacant following Cllr. Sue Perkins’s elevation to the cabinet.

Pembroke St. Michael

The Conservative councillor ‘Aiden Bryn’ (Aden Brinn) was expected to see off a challenge from Jonathan Nutting. This result has also been counted as one of the other big election upsets, as I think many councillors expected Brinn’s return. Nutting secured it with a majority of 57, over Brinn’s 2008 majority of 143, and sits as an unaffiliated councillor.

Scleddau

In Scleddau, it was thought that the sitting Conservative councillor Owen James would be dispatched by independent candidate Raymond Llewhelin, but he actually went on to retain his seat with a 55 vote majority. At the 2008 election Cllr. James defeated the incumbent high-profile councillor Alwyn Luke, and did so with a majority of 52. I suspect the confidence boost Cllr. James took from gaining three extra votes in four years must have had a bearing on his post-election decision to ditch the Tories. Despite standing as an official candidate he refused to join the Conservative group after his victory, and now sits as an unaffiliated councillor.

St. David’s

At the 2008 election John George beat David Lloyd and two others. Skip forward four years and the same four candidates fought a 2012 rematch. The prediction on my document was that Cllr. George who was an IPG member and recent council chairman, would retain his seat. However, he came second – the voters turned his 170 majority into a 210 majority for David Lloyd, who sits as an unaffiliated councillor. Incidentally, the pair also stood against each other at the 2004 elections. Lloyd, standing at that time as a Liberal Democrat candidate, came second to George by 110 votes.

Whilst elections were held in 43 wards, no prediction is made for 13 of them within this document, despite all of the candidate names and parties being listed. Given the apparent penchant within the IPG for collating such predictions and working to strategic plans, I suspect there might well be many other similar documents in existence.