Thursday, 14th June, 2012
Dyfed-Powys candidates for police commissioner
*There is now an update to this post
November will see a change to policing across all of the UK’s forces. I won’t bore you with the finer points, but the current system of police authorities made up of numerous appointed members is going out of the window, to be replaced by a sole elected official known as a police and crime commissioner.
Polling day is Thursday 15th November, and, along with a smattering of independent candidates, these elections are expected to be primarily fought on party-political grounds.
Because of this you’d be forgiven for thinking that candidates will have been selected and announced long ago. Whilst this is the case for some police forces, the electorate within Dfyed-Powys will have to wait a while longer to find out who’ll be fighting for their favourite (or least favourite) party.
Dyfed-Powys covers a very large area stretching from the far west, right across the middle of Wales and going on to border two of England’s forces in the east. Or, as a fellow councillor recently put it to me: “from Stackpole to Shrewsbury.”
It’s the largest police force by area in England and Wales, and the third largest in the UK behind Strathclyde in Scotland and the Northern Ireland police.
So who might be standing?
Plaid Cymru
There’s speculation that, whilst there may be candidates willing to stand for Plaid Cymru, the party’s position on police devolution to Wales is a poisoned chalice. It won’t be altogether surprising if they fail to field a candidate.
Plaid Cymru finds itself in an awkward position with these elections, and this page on their website clarifying the party’s position seems to recognise this.
Click to read quotes from the webpage
“Plaid Cymru have opposed the introduction of these elected police and crime commissioners on the grounds that this involves a probable politicisation of policing and that is not a good use of policing resources at a time of public sector cuts.”
“However, despite our opposition, and the opposition of the National Assembly for Wales, these elections will take place. Although we are not in agreement with the roles, it is important that strong, competent candidates are in place to fight these elections on a platform which is beneficial for Wales.”
“We would welcome making contact with any candidate who meets these criteria and wants to stand for election as police and crime commissioners as an independent, non-partisan candidate. If four such candidates can be found around Wales, one for each police force area, then Plaid Cymru would support these candidates.”
Source: Plaid Cymru Website, written by Elfyn Llwyd MP.
Conservatives
The Conservatives are keeping their cards close to their chest. Cllr. John Davies, the IPPG county councillor for the Cilgerran ward (and until recently, leader) of Pembrokeshire County Council has long been considered a favourite.
The main question hasn’t been “will he stand?” but “will it be for a party or as an independent?”
The obvious choice if he wants the party machinery behind him would be the Conservatives. Ousted AM Nick Bourne would surely have been the opponent to beat in the party’s selection process but has ruled himself out to the surprise and disappointment of many.
In the absence of any firm internal Tory competition, John Davies may well be sporting a blue rosette come Guy Fawkes night.
Labour
No official announcement from Labour, but this is the only party whose candidate we can speculate over with some certainty.
A number of possibilities touted (ex-MP Nick Ainger, recent Assembly candidate Terry Mills, ex-AM and past parliamentary candidate Tamsin Dunwoody to name a few) but I have it on good authority that the nomination has already been sealed up in a rather less than democratic process.
Accordingly, of those who applied only one candidate has been shortlisted. Quite how a person can go on to lose this internal selection process is not easy to understand, so there should be no surprise when, in the coming weeks, Christine Gwyther is officially adopted as the Labour candidate.
Gwyther was the national assembly member for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire for two terms, losing to Angela Burns in 2007.
A year after her defeat Gwyther set her sights lower and failed in her bid to represent her home town – Pembroke Dock – in the 2008 Pembrokeshire County Council elections.
A couple of years and a change of strategy later, she had her sights set on parliament – securing the Labour nomination to contest Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, eventually losing to Plaid Cymru.
The eventful electoral history is almost up to date. In 2011 Gwyther tried to take back her old seat in Cardiff Bay.
If you remember, on the same day as the assembly elections there was also a referendum on some law-making powers being devolved to Wales.
In the February before the election I attended a debate organised by the Pembrokeshire South-East Energy Group at the Regency Hall in Saundersfoot, where members of the public could submit questions to be put to the Assembly candidates on environmental and energy issues.
The Arctic temperatures of the Regency Hall stick more clearly in my memory than anything said, but for me, one gem stands well above the rest.
At the end of the debate during her final remarks, Gwyther delivered the parting shot: “can I also take this opportunity to urge you to vote yes in the referendum…” to which many in the audience responded: “NO!”
In the election, Angela Burns went on to increase her majority, though I dare say Gwyther may have taken some minor consolation from the referendum going her way.
With exactly five months until election day, not one candidacy has been declared. As Dyfed-Powys covers such a large area, candodates will have a lot of ground to cover, so you’d have to favour a party candidate backed by volunteer canvassing teams.
Parliamentary candidates are often adopted many years ahead of the next election so the prospective candidates’ shyness here is something of a mystery, and we are still unable to discredit jokes that the Lib Dems may be putting up Lembit Öpik!
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As a Lib Dem, I am not aware of Lembit Opik standing for the role. If he stands, I know one person who won’t be voting for him.
I was interested in the reason given by Simon Weston as to why he was not going to stand for the position with the South Wales Police… “Mr Weston also told BBC Radio Wales that the race to become the police commissioner had been “hijacked” by people with political agendas.”
That quote came from the BBC News website.
I honestly wonder what the turnout will be when the election takes place. Will the public be interested, let alone care?
What do you reckon, Jacob?
Andrew, since posting this I’m sure you’ll be aware that my information was good and Christine Gwyther has been announced as Labour’s candidate.
I don’t know who’ll be putting their hat into the ring for the Conservatives but the clever money says John Davies’ chances as an independent aren’t worth contemplating.
An independent candidate would have to cough up £5,000 as a deposit, not to mention the funding of their own campaign. I understand the spending limit for Dyfed-Powys will be around £80k. Even if a candidate could run a master campaign with a quarter of that amount, it’s still a big financial gamble.
Given that it’s perhaps unlikely we’ll see a Plaid Cymru or Lib Dem contender, I think we’re either looking at a Labour/Conservative or a Labour/independent two-horse race, or possibly Labour/Conservative/independent.
I’m pretty sure at least 5% of voters would want to avoid a Gwyther victory at any cost, even if that means voting for John Davies, so if he does stand as an independent, my prediction is that he will at least get to see his deposit again.
As for turnout, which was your original question, I imagine it will be around 50-55%. I think the trouble in engaging people in these elections is how they’ll appear to be another expensive layer of bureaucracy.
In my experience, two societal statuses result in an obsession with control, power and authority. Those who fight and win elections, and those upholding the law. The introduction of police and crime commissioners combines both for the UK – and I think the calibre of some of the candidates that have been mooted so far, reflects this.
Well, Christopher Salmon (Con) won it, and since November last has been PCC for Dyfed-Powys. It appears however that the whole thing may have been just another case of politicians doing what British politicians do best!
Christopher, a former Army Officer and former failed Conservative party parliamentary candidate for Llanelli, having won the election for PCC, and following his appointment to ‘public’ office, apparently may have some difficulty in responding to issues raised about the April Jones case by a member of the public.
Silly me, I’d always thought it difficult if not even impossible, for a vehicle to be going out of town one minute (with victim in the back), only for it to be going in the opposite direction a few minutes later – to abduct same victim! (CCTV cameras, outside Tuffin’s garage & then in town centre).
There were more issues raised about that particular Dyfed-Powys Police investigation but I’m still waiting for Christopher Salmon to reply to my communications on that matter, the first of which was sent on 21st July 13 via a contact form on his website, christophersalmon.org
Are those issues embarrassing to him, the force he’s now “responsible” for, or for the Conservative party? Or has it even been deemed to be “not in the public interest” by those we elected and “trusted” to act in our best interests and that of our country? Whatever the case, I think we can be sure that “public service” is not all that it appears to be.
The victim was abducted in the early evening of 1st October 2012, the now convicted criminal arrested during the afternoon of the 2nd. Given that forensic (SOCO) officers are known to have searched the criminal’s home on the 4th and, that there was enough evidence to charge him with abduction, murder and one other offence related to concealment or disposal of body, on the afternoon of the 6th October, why the need for an extensive search in very difficult terrain covering such a large area – and lasting for over 28 weeks, when the evidence recovered should have clearly indicated much of what he did to his victim!
How much did they miss, how much did they ignore, how many mistakes were made?
I regret that I am unable to say, but only because the issues raised apparently failed to elicit a response from Mr Christopher Salmon, PCC for Dyfed-Powys Police.